With just days until the Senedd elections, as promised here’s a quick run down of what the main political parties have to offer on poverty in Wales.
I’ve assessed each of the parties’ pledges to address the root causes of poverty, i.e. low income caused by lack of decent paid work and an inadequate social security system, and high costs especially housing, childcare, and debt. I haven’t looked at the parties’ pledges on some of consequences of poverty, such as poor health and lower educational attainment, although these are of course important too.
I’ve used the following criteria: if they say they care about poverty; what they promise to deliver; and whether promised actions will make a difference.
Overall findings
All parties except Reform UK make pledges on two issues likely to have a big impact on poverty – an extension of childcare to children aged 9 months to 4 years and increasing the number of social homes by varying numbers. How achievable these aims are remains to be seen, given the last Labour government struggled to roll out childcare for 2 year olds and achieve its 20,000 social homes target. Nevertheless, it is encouraging to see these important steps across almost all parties.
There’s also near universal agreement on introducing low cost bus fares, while Plaid Cymru, Greens, Lib Dems and Welsh Labour are all agreed on improving energy efficiency of homes and extending free school meals. Plaid Cymru, Greens and Welsh Labour all commit to a better deal for private renters, although the level of detail varies. And Plaid Cymru and Welsh Labour both want to promote fair work, with the Greens wanting it for workers in culture industries.
There are three big areas of difference. First, Plaid Cymru is the only party to promise a child payment, which is the most effective measure to reduce child poverty. But with a limited budget and no powers, it can only pledge a modest payment to a small number of children, so its impact remains to be seen.
Second, the Welsh Conservatives and Reform UK both pledge to cut 1p in the pound off income tax, without explaining how they would balance the books. Very low income households stand to gain little from a tax cut, but could well lose out a lot from reductions in public services.
And third, most parties are silent on whether they will maintain current anti-poverty measures such as the Discretionary Assistance Fund and Education Maintenance Allowance. Flawed though these are in some ways, hardship is likely to worsen unless they are replaced with other mechanisms to support low income households.
Below is my review of the promises in each party’s manifesto – listed in alphabetical order.
Green Party
The Green Party manifesto mentions poverty a few times, although usually as part of other priorities for example:
Poverty is a mental health emergency, and we will treat it as such.
The Green Party manifesto has a lot of bold pledges, although many are relatively light on detail. Key pledges that have a bearing on reducing relative-income poverty are:
- Scrap council tax and replace with a land value tax
- Build 60,000 social homes over 10 years
- Scale up home retrofit programmes such as Warm Homes NEST and Green Homes Wales
- Freeze rents and end no-fault evictions
- 20 hours a week of funded childcare for all children from 9 months, with sliding scale fees for extra hours
- Universal free school meals for pupils of all ages
- Limit the requirement for branded school uniforms and encourage uniform swaps
- Cheap or free bus fares
- Fair work in the culture sector.
It’s hard to tell how much difference this pot pouri of pledges will make because the devil really is in the detail. Universal free childcare is likely to make a big difference to parental employment as would increasing the supply of social housing and a private rent freeze. Action on school uniforms and cheap bus fares would all help. But while council tax is regressive and urgently in need of radical reform, whether a land value tax will cut bills remains to be seen.
Liberal Democrats
The Liberal Democrats make no reference to poverty other than food poverty, although there are specific mentions of the costs of housing, energy and driving in rural areas. Key pledges are a real mixed bag, with relatively little detail about most. They are:
- Help people into work by cutting NHS waiting lists
- Cut energy costs and make homes cheaper to heat with a 10 year emergency upgrade plan
- Create 30,000 new social homes
- Provide 30 hours a week free childcare from 9 months
- Continue £1 youth bus fare
- Free school meals for eligible children in the holidays
- A National food strategy to tackle food poverty
As with other parties promising free childcare, the measure will help parents to work and also cut costs. The promise to create more social homes will also ease pressure on housing supply and should help with costs. The other measures are likely to have less impact, and the manifesto does not say anything about other important interventions such as Council Tax, Education Maintenance Allowance etc.
Plaid Cymru
Plaid give considerable priority to reducing poverty. Their manifesto includes a section on social justice, in which they say:
Practical action to tackle the injustice of child poverty and give every child a fair start in life will be a top priority for a Plaid Cymru government.
So, ten out of ten for commitment, but I’ve heard these sorts of claims before so will this priority be backed by action? Plaid’s Manifesto is long and detailed, but key promises in respect of poverty are:
- 20 hours a week of free childcare from 9m to 4 years, with the current offer for 3-4 year olds of working parents to continue
- Pilot £10 pw child payment for 0-6 year olds in low income families
- Anti-poverty and cost of living help for unpaid carers
- Extend free school meals to secondary pupils in low income families
- Deliver 20,000 social homes by 2030, using a new agency and reformed planning system
- Introduce fair rents for private tenants
- Area-based energy efficiency retrofit programme
- Cheap bus fares
- ‘Fair Work First’ when awarding public contracts
- Fully implement a Welsh benefits system
These pledges are mostly pretty specific and ought to be deliverable. Will they make a difference? Yes and no. The child payment if rolled out fully and the childcare pledge should make a measurable difference to poverty rates, while the action on housing should ease – but won’t alleviate – the crisis in housing availability and affordability. However, the pledge on help for carers is pretty vague, and ‘Fair Work First’ in public procurement is unlikely to help low-paid and insecure workers in retail, hospitality and leisure. Also missing is any commitment to current anti-poverty measures, such as the Discretionary Assistance Fund.
Reform UK
Reform UK’s manifesto doesn’t mention poverty once, although it does include a promise to tackle the cost of living. While it has a lot of promises on a wide range of issues, there are relatively few on what they will actually do to raise people’s standards of living. Main pledges on these issues are:
- Cut 1p in the pound off income tax
- No new Welsh taxes or levies
- Require referenda on council tax increases above 4.99%
- Focus energy efficiency subsidies on lowest incomes.
- Enforce a 10 year residency requirement for social housing (with some exceptions).
Will these pledges help the lowest-income households in Wales? Unlikely in my view. The cut in income tax will have little impact on poverty as the poorest do not pay income tax anyway. Similarly limiting council tax rises is unlikely to help as if the current Council Tax Reduction scheme continues, most get 100% relief. Energy efficiency measures are already focused on low income households, and its unclear if the residency requirement to access social housing will make a significant difference to those waiting for a home.
Welsh Conservatives
The Welsh Conservatives’ manifesto has a specific section on poverty, which they promise to tackle by cutting tax, creating jobs and growing the Welsh economy to give more families the economic security of a decent income. Their main pledges on income poverty are:
- Cut 1p in the pound off income tax
- Require referenda on council tax increases above 5%
- free bus travel for 16-24 year olds and veterans
- Extend free childcare to children aged 9 months to 4 years old
- Build 30,000 new social homes, and reintroduce the right to buy one
- Work with the UK Government to give young people a £5,000 tax rebate in their first job towards their first home
- Reform Flying Start to ensure that it is targeted at families who need it, not postcodes
- Develop a Tackling Poverty Action Plan to address child poverty and fuel poverty.
The commitment to extend childcare and provide more social homes is likely to have some impact on poverty, as would the reform of Flying Start. However, the reduction in Income Tax by 1p in the pound, along with the cuts to services needed, together with the reintroduction of right to buy could undo the gains.
Welsh Labour
After 25 years in power, Welsh Labour has a tough job pledging new things. Its manifesto claims to that it will ‘Use all our devolved powers to tackle child poverty under the Child Poverty Strategy for Wales’. The commitment is welcome, but it is a moot point whether the strategy (do they mean the 2025 one?) will change much.
Labour’s list of pledges is long, although some lack detail. As well as promising new action, the Manifesto also pledges to maintain many existing interventions. Key promises are:
- Ensure businesses receiving Welsh Government support pay the Real Living Wage, end exploitative zero-hours contracts, and open the door to trade unions.
- Fund warm and cool hubs to help people cope with low or high temperatures
- Extend free school meals to low income secondary school pupils
- Provide funded childcare for 20,000 children aged 9 months plus
- Expand provision of baby bundles
- Cheap bus fares
- Create 40,000 low carbon homes for social rent
- Create a fairer deal for provide renters
- Energy efficiency upgrades to more than 100,000 homes
- Put the Welsh benefits charter into law
- Protect existing measures including:
- Free school meals for primary pupils
- Free school breakfastSchool Essentials Grant
- Education Maintenance Allowance
- School Holiday Enrichment Programme
- The most progressive student grants in the UK
- Carers Support Fund
- Council Tax Reduction Scheme
- Council Tax Debt Rescue Scheme
- Discretionary Assistance Fund
- Single Advice Fund
The issue with Labour’s pledges is that it is unclear how much they will make a difference. Extending childcare will certainly make a difference by enabling parents to work and cut costs, and free school meals for secondary pupils will ensure more children have a meal. The pledge on existing measures is more mixed. It is pleasing to see the Discretionary Assistance Funding being maintained, although other measures have not to date really shifted the dial on poverty because they are simply not generous enough.
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