With Andy Burnham set to become Prime Minister next week, there’s been a lot of focus on what his experience as Mayor of Greater Manchester might mean for devolution. We can expect that English local authorities will see a change in approach, but what this means for Wales is much less clear. Certainly his initial forays into Welsh devolution have ruffled feathers.
But before we start Burnham-bashing, I think having a pro-devolution Prime Minister, even if through an English lens, is a good starting point. At least he seems persuaded that Whitehall cannot do everything, even if the nuances of Welsh devolution as opposed to English devolution appear to have escaped him (or his team) so far.
So, I thought it was worth setting out, for anyone who wants to read it and in the hope that it might reach someone close to him, why Wales is not Manchester – and why a different approach is needed.
1. Wales is a separate country
Wales became part of the UK because of actions by Edward 1 and then Henry VIII. Their laws abolished existing Welsh laws, practices and institutions, and instead subjected Wales to the authority of the English Crown and Parliament. Wales’s incorporation into England was imposed – the people of Wales did not agree to it – and was based on a profoundly unequal relationship between the two countries.
More than 500 years on, people in Wales have not forgotten this historic power-grab and the resulting inequality. It contributes to people’s identity and support for control over our own affairs, and generates a fuss when people do insensitive things like create sculptures named ‘ring of iron’.
2. Wales has its own language, identity and culture
Despite the best efforts of Edward I and Henry VIII and others, Welsh language, identity and culture remain strong. For example, in the 2021 Census, more than half of Wales’s population described themselves as “Welsh only” compared with just over 5 per cent of people in England who selected an “English only” identity. Britishness has resonance almost exclusively in England – there 70 per cent selected “English-British” or “British only” as their identity while in Wales only 27 per cent selected “Welsh-British” or “British only”.
And while the Welsh language is not what it was, a significant minority across Wales (more than a quarter) speak Cymraeg and in some areas it is the dominant language. Wales has a thriving and distinctive culture in both Welsh and English, from literature to theatre to music and more.
3. Devolution in Wales has the express consent of Welsh people
Given Wales’s history and people’s identity, it’s not surprising that devolution has widespread support. The marginal ‘yes’ vote in 1997 was followed by a much more positive referendum result in 2011. More than a decade later, the Independent Commission on the Constitution found that around 60 per cent of people supported a devolved Welsh parliament with either current or enhanced powers and a further 15 per cent supported independence.
In contrast, while devolution to English local government is a complex subject (see this House of Commons briefing for the period 2010 – 2024 and this one for subsequent developments), there appears to be no such regular testing of public opinion. The creation of the strategic combined authorities and mayors was not subject to referenda (as far as I can tell anyway – happy to be corrected), nor does there seem to be regular opinion polling. Unlike Welsh devolution, the legitimacy of English devolution is taken for granted.
4. Wales has a separate tier of government in its own right
Today, as a result of the 1998 Government of Wales Act, Wales has its own tier of government. Crucially, Welsh devolution is separate to and distinct from local authorities, and unlike devolution to Manchester and other authorities. Devolution in Wales does not depend on Welsh local authorities for its existence, it could if it wished change the powers and boundaries of local government in Wales, and is able to direct many aspects of what local authorities do.
Devolving powers from Westminster to Welsh local authorities might seem to be the same as devolving powers to English councils, but it is not. Bypassing Wales’s elected government is not only a discourtesy, it risks unforeseen consequences as policies, legislation and funding may not be aligned.
5. The Senedd has a different electoral system
In keeping with being a separate tier of government, the Senedd has its own electoral arrangements that are neither those of a local authority nor of a directly-elected mayor.
The Senedd consists of 96 members elected by a form of proportional representation, designed to reflect the plurality of political views in Wales, and usually results in minority governments. It encourages a collaborative rather than confrontational approach. In contrast, directly-elected mayors are a single individual elected by first-past-the-post (soon to be replaced by supplementary vote), and in Manchester has acted as chair to their local combined local authority body.
Dealing with a First Minister, accountable to a fully representative Senedd, is not the same as dealing with a single Mayor, who works with but has indirect accountability to their combined authority.
6. The Senedd has wider competence
The Senedd has very broad general powers of competence – basically it can do anything unless an issue is specifically reserved to the UK Government. The Senedd has therefore long had responsibility for services that combined authorities do not, notably health, social care, pre-16 and higher education, culture and arts, local government and electoral arrangements in Wales.
English Mayors and strategic authorities have to date only had competence in areas specifically devolved to them, mainly in respect of the local economy, either via agreement or an order by the Secretary of State. However, the English Devolution and Community Empowerment Act 2026 gives English strategic authorities the same power of general competence held by local authorities, i.e. they can do anything that individuals generally may do, provided they do not break other laws. While it remains to be seen how these authorities use their general powers, they do not have statutory duties in respect of health and education for example.
It is worth noting that some Mayors are also police and crime commissioners, creating a close relationship between combined authorities and the police, and the Manchester Combined authority has some responsibilities in respect of probation services – more than the Senedd.
7. Senedd can make laws and raise taxes
The Senedd has more powers than a mayor or combined authority. Crucially, unlike a combined authority, the Senedd can make laws that change people’s or organisations’ behaviour, can create or scrap public bodies, and can vary income tax and raise new taxes if it wishes. These are really important and are (and should) be used to complement public expenditure to improve people’s lives.
The Senedd is also in charge of its own affairs, and can change its name, electoral arrangements and anything else. Combined authorities’ decision-making is subject to UK Government control and they do not have legislative or tax-raising powers.
8. The Senedd has a far bigger budget
The Senedd’s revenue budget dwarfs that of combined authorities. In 2026/27, the Senedd’s revenue spend is ten times that of the Manchester combined authority, at £27bn compared with Manchester’s £2bn on non-police services.
There are also key differences in how budgets are determined. The Senedd’s budget is mainly driven by the Barnett formula, whereas that of Manchester is primarily based on government grants to grow the economy, plus contributions by local authorities and some retained business rates. While this gives the Senedd significantly greater flexibility and impact, it also means it has to take tough decisions about spending priorities across all responsibilities.
What next?
Expectations of Burnham are high. It’s unclear if there is a ‘Burnham-ism’ driving his thinking. If it is ‘Manchesterism’ on stilts, then while the commitment to devolution is very interesting, it will need some major tweaks to get it to work in Wales.
The Welsh Government needs to get out its shopping list of things it would like to see a new PM deliver for Wales – not just changes to the fiscal settlement and powers over X, Y or Z – but tangible benefits for the economy and those public services which are not devolved. Rather than watching for the next Burnham mis-step – which is inevitable – the opportunity is to help him get it right (no matter what your politics are).
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